Date: Sat, 31 Jan 2004 00:57:19 -0800
From: "Yuriy Kirienko" <yk1@aaahawk.com>
Subject: Russia's nuclear forces reportedly are preparing their largest
maneuvers in two decades

By VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV [i] <>



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A Russian intercontinental ballistic Topol-M
missile takes off from a launch pad somewhere at
undisclosed location in Russia in this 2001 file
photo. The Russian nuclear forces plan a massive
exercise next month that will involve test-firing
several ballistic missiles and taking dozens of
strategic bombers into the air - the maneuvers the
daily Kommersant newspaper said would be the
largest in more than 20 years. (AP Photo/Str)Full
Image
<http://apnews1.iwon.com/image/20040130/RUSSIA_MAN
EUVERS.sff_MOSB107_20040130122806.html?date=200401
31&docid=D80DITTG0>

MOSCOW (AP) - Russia's nuclear forces reportedly are preparing their largest
maneuvers in two decades, an exercise involving the test-firing of missiles
and flights by dozens of bombers in a massive simulation of an all-out nuclear
war. President Vladimir Putin is expected to personally oversee the maneuvers,
which are apparently aimed at demonstrating the revival of the nation's
military might and come ahead of Russian elections in March.

The business newspaper Kommersant said the exercise was set for mid-February
and would closely resemble a 1982 Soviet exercise dubbed the "seven-hour
nuclear war" that put the West on edge.

Official comments on the upcoming exercise have been sketchy. The chief of
Russia's Strategic Missile Forces, Col.-Gen. Nikolai Solovtsov, was quoted by
the Interfax-Military News Agency as saying the planned maneuvers would
involve several launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles in various
regions of Russia, but he wouldn't give further details.

A Defense Ministry spokesman refused to comment on the reports. The Russian
military typically says little about upcoming exercises. In Washington, the
State Department said it has seen reports that Russia has plans to conduct the
exercises in February. The department also said Russia is obliged to notify
the United States 24 hours before a missile test and has done so in the past.

Kommersant said the maneuvers would involve Tu-160 strategic bombers
test-firing cruise missiles over the northern Atlantic. Analysts describe such
an exercise as an imitation of a nuclear attack on the United States.

Other groups of bombers will fly over Russia's Arctic regions and test-fire
missiles at a southern range near the Caspian Sea, the newspaper said.

As part of the exercise, the military is planning to conduct several launches
of intercontinental ballistic missiles, including one from a Russian nuclear
submarine in the Barents Sea, the Kommersant report said.

The military also plans to launch military satellites from the Baikonur
cosmodrome in Kazakhstan and the Plesetsk launch pad in northern Russia - a
simulation of the replacement of satellites lost in action, Kommersant said.

Russia's system warning of an enemy missile attack and a missile defense
system protecting Moscow will also be involved in the exercise, it added.
Pavel Felgenhauer, an independent military analyst, said the military has
regularly held nuclear exercises that were timed to coincide with the annual
test-firing of aging Soviet-built missiles.

"It has been a routine affair, but it can be expanded if they want a show," he
said. Ivan Safranchuk, head of the Moscow office of the Center for Defense
Information, a Washington-based think-tank, said the maneuvers would further
strengthen Putin's popularity ahead of the March 14 presidential election he
is expected to win easily.

Putin has repeatedly pledged to rebuild Russia's military might and restore
pride to the demoralized service. When he ran for his first term in 2000, he
flew as a second pilot in a fighter jet and later donned naval officer's garb
on a visit to a nuclear submarine - images that played well with many voters
who are nostalgic for Soviet global power and military prestige.

This exercise will make a great show, with Putin receiving reports from
military commanders," Safranchuk told The Associated Press. Kommersant said
Moscow had notified Washington about the exercise, describing it as part of
efforts to fend off terror threats even though it imitates the Cold War
scenario of an all-out war. "The exercise follows the old scenario, and
casting it as anti-terror is absurd," Safranchuk said.

Putin's support for the United States following the Sept. 11, 2001 terror
attacks bolstered relations with Washington and helped broker a new
U.S.-Russian nuclear arms reduction deal and a Russia-NATO partnership
agreement in 2002.

But the U.S.-Russian honeymoon has soured lately over Moscow's criticism of
the war in Iraq , U.S. concerns about authoritarian trends in the Kremlin's
domestic policy, and Russia's perceived attempts to assert its authority over
ex-Soviet neighbors.

http://i.am/jah/horse.htm#1917