Falluja, Najaf and the First Law of Holes
By William Rivers Pitt
t r u t h o u t | Perspective

Anyone who believes that April has been the cruelest month of this Iraq war -
111 Americans killed with the total dead now at 718, hundreds upon hundreds of
Iraqi civilians killed - should gird themselves for the reality that the
worst, the very worst, the unimaginably awful, is still yet to come.

It is bad enough that this second Bush war in Iraq has yielded nothing of what
was promised by George and his merry crew. There are no weapons of mass
destruction, there was no connection between the deposed Hussein regime and al
Qaeda, there was no connection between Hussein and September 11, there will be
no democracy for Iraq, and the Iraqi people have most definitely not welcomed
us with open arms.

Instead, Bush has mobilized anti-American sentiment to such a staggering
degree that Shi'ite and Sunni, enemies for generations past counting, have
united to fight us. The invasion and occupation has spurred an al Qaeda
recruitment drive that has swelled the ranks of that organization. A lot of
people are dead, American and British and Spanish and Polish and Iraqi alike.
Nine Americans and 28 Iraqis were killed this weekend alone. The light at the
end of this tunnel is an oncoming freight train.

That's not the worst part, however. The worst part is yet to come, in two
cities called Falluja and Najaf. Americans paying attention to the spiral of
violence in recent weeks will recognize those names, for they have been at the
center of heavy combat since the month of April began. Bush administration
officials, rocked back on their heels by the eruption of death there, were
forced at one point to sue for a cease fire with the 'insurgents' they had
supposedly defeated last May, when the mission was declared accomplished and
the end of major combat operations was declared over during a photo-op on an
aircraft carrier several time zones away from the violence.

The cease fire has failed, and American forces are at this moment
surrounding Falluja and Najaf with the intention of invading these cities and
routing the 'insurgents.' A showdown is coming, and nothing good will be made
of it.

U.S. military planners have spent many years now studying about and training
soldiers for the realities of urban combat. The city of Falluja should be the
first chapter in the urban combat strategy binder titled "Worst Terrain
Imaginable." The city has nearly 300,000 residents and is made up of a
dizzying maze of narrow streets, wide boulevards and back alleys. Most of the
apartments have porches that will serve Iraqi snipers and RPG-toting
helicopter hunters well. Every neighborhood has a mosque, a school, markets
and clinics which, if struck by an errant American bomb, will deliver horrible
numbers of civilian casualties.

The politics of the looming Falluja incursion are another thing again. Hajim
al-Hassani, of the Iraqi Islamic Party, sits on the American-compiled Iraqi
Governing Council, but has little credibility among the people in Falluja. He
is seen as not having been able to stop American forces from fighting in that
city, and the Iraqi Islamic Party itself has been accused of collaboration
with America. The mayor of Falluja, Mahmoud Ibrahim, is disliked by many of
the city's residents. He informed officers of the American forces a few days
ago that he had no control over Jolan, Hayal Askeri and Shuhada, three
sections of the city which make up half its area. In other words, both
representatives for this town are basically useless in any effort to call a
halt to the attack.

The religious aspect is easily the most explosive element in this matter.
Falluja is a Sunni town. Through the almost mystical bungling of the Bush
administration, it has become tied to the holy city of Najaf, a Shi'ite
stronghold. This city, like Falluja, has been surrounded by American forces
and faces imminent attack. If an attack against Najaf is indeed undertaken,
the consequences for Iraq, and indeed for the entire Middle East, will be
unimaginable.

Najaf is the site of the tomb of Ali, the most important Shi'ite saint. It
is a holy city, like Mecca and Medina, and is the symbolic capital for
Shi'ites all around the world. If American forces attack Najaf, every Shi'ite
on the planet will have a dog in the fight. Iran, a Shi'ite-controlled nation,
may well become involved. Shi'ite religious leaders will issue fatwas
demanding massive numbers of suicide attacks against Americans.

Do the math.

American forces attack Falluja, and become ensconced in a brutal
street-to-street fight within the confines of that maze-like city. 300,000
civilians will be caught in the crossfire, and the resulting carnage will
enflame the Iraqi people to a degree not yet seen. American forces will absorb
brutal casualties. If the U.S. decides to avoid troop casualties by bombing
Falluja in a repeat of Shock and Awe, the loss of civilian life will be beyond
severe.

Simultaneously, American forces attack Najaf, a holy city central to the
spiritual lives of millions of Shi'ites around the world. An explosion of rage
will engulf the Middle East. Iran, which has something resembling a real army,
could very well drive across the border to engage American forces that are
already stretched. This war, already a ridiculous mess, will become an
unmitigated catastrophe.

Anyone who thinks Iraq is a bad situation now should reserve judgment until
the end of this week. George W. Bush and his crew have clearly forgotten the
First Law of Holes: When you find yourself deep in a hole, stop digging. If
this is what Bush meant when he talked about "changing the world" in his
recent prime-time press conference, we are all in a great deal of trouble.