So what can the U.S. do to avoid this problem?

Well, there's the direct answer -- we could attack other countries. Clearly,
attacking China is an invitation for the U.S. to be on the end of a
butt-kicking not wearing the boot, so that's out. Attacking Iran would seem to
make sense in an abstract way, but not in the current U.S. military position.
True, we could use our air force and navy to carpet-bomb Iran from the safety
of hundreds of kilometers away. And we would most likely require Israel's
help, seeing as how Iran, if attacked, has already said they'd turn Israel
into a blazing furnace of something-or-other (and they have weapons capable of
doing so, even if they're not nuclear). The problem is that an attack on Iran
would seem, to the world at large and the Middle East in particular, as
unprovoked. Even if we had a "good reason" (something along the lines of
"they're making nuclear weapons, we're certain this time!") most of the world
would refuse to help us and the rest would join in the defense of Iran. Israel
would almost certainly be attacked, and they have nukes...and things wouldn't
be pretty. Irradiating Iran's oil supply would cause far more harm than good
to the U.S. (anyone seen "Goldfinger"? It'd be a lot like that). So unless
they attack first, we can't do anything to them.

Normally, we'd do something like drastically raising exports. But we have
outsourced a bunch of our labour, which cuts deeply into our import/oexport
ratio as well as our ability to make things we can sell. We have a good hold
on the high-tech market, and grow some good agricultural products, but it's
not like we can double the need for such worldwide in a short time.

The best tool the U.S. has right now is, oddly enough, diplomacy. While we
can't persuade China to keep its dollars (what could we promise them in
return?), we can persuade other countries to retain theirs. After all, if
everyone sells their dollars, most of these people will lose (since the value
of the dollar will fall before they can sell theirs). However, if they all
keep their dollars, then the price doesn't drop any further, and everyone is
happy (not extatic, but happy). Meanwhile the U.S. needs to find a way to
stabilize their import/export ratio, and quickly. One factor might be removing
tax breaks in exchange for more favorable trade tariffs. Another might be a
new source of energy (a corn oil that replaces heating oil, better electric
motors, etc). Bringing back outsourced jobs would certainly help. It would be
a tough move, harmful to the wallet of many Americans (mostly the richer
ones), but better than the alternatives.

The current U.S. President seems to realize this, if a touch late. It is true
that he's recently promoted alternative energy development within the U.S. and
has had serious talks with China about our trade deficit with them (his main
point in that discussion was probably "please stop doing that"). However, he
does not appear to have any interest in removing tax breaks or tariff
alterations, which would inhibit what he refers to as "Free and fair trade".
Also, much of his attention is devoted elsewhere. But if he finds a new and
unique solution -- say, selling U.S. ports to the a Middle East country, in
exchange for a promise to sell oil for dollars -- you at least have to give
him credit for trying.

Shinarae Lluminus

P.S. Some of you might remember a similarly long-winded post I put up several
years ago entitled "Why Bush Won't Get What He Wants" (re: the Iraq war) which
turned out to be horribly, horribly wrong. Hopefully, I'm not wrong about U.S.
unable to invade Iran, too. If I am...well, let's just say it's scary when
Blackstar and I agree on something.

Also, I am curious, is this your own writing or a repost? Just curious, it
seems like a repost because it is so long, but there is no source, and if it
is original, hmm waste of effort to post it on batmud, but it is a good read.

The writing is my own, but is largely a summary of facts taken from credible
international sources (Reuters, the BBC, Oxford University, etc) and some
predictions/opinions based on those facts, most of which I'm certain have been
said before with more eloquence and credibility.

And nothing on BatMUD is a waste of effort!

Shinarae Lluminus

Hehe ok maybe I am jaded, but I meant the audience makes it a waste of effort
(myself included, hehe)